How to do precisely the right thing…

I’m here at SXSW Interactive and I’m scattering my blog notes to various blogs, depending on the topic and relevancy. This one is kind of general and about psychology so I’m stowing it here
Raw notes from the Daniel Gilbert Presentation: How to Do Precisely the Right Thing at All Possible Times:
standing in a slow line is memorable
the “light is always red” problem
people vastly underestimate the numbers of deaths by asthma and drowning (much less spectacular than asthma and drowning)
one of these things is not like the other:
* terrorist attack
* plane crash
* earthquake
* swimming pool
the swimming pool is actually dangerous
you’re 10x more likely to die in a pool than all the other put together
lotteries are a stupidity tax
the planning fallacy, example: student doing thesis
* worst case prediction, if everything goes wrong: 48 weeks
* best case: 27 weeks
* most likely: 33 weeks
* actual: 55 weeks
people make mistakes when they compare the cost of things with the past instead of the possible
people also make mistakes comparing things with the possible
conclusion:
we’re not stupid, we’re ancient
how did we get to the moon?
we can make good decisions with the help of science
tags: sxsw2006, sxsw