Bush Knockout Punch?

· 2004 Election

This could be a Sleeper.
Just guessing, but a decisive blow to Bush’s reelection may emerge, during the Spring and through the Summer, from devastating declines in reenlistment in the Guard, Reserves, and regular Army.
This will be very hard for him to defend against: It is hard facts, not interpretation. It will be a dramatic, progressive, relentlessly ongoing story. It will cut across pro-war and anti-war sentiments, perceived by _both_ sides as a marked decline in Security, Strength, and Readiness–and simply as a bungle.
It will set “Support Our Troops” _against_ “Support the President.” And it will be dollar costly in the incentives required to recoup from the decline–not to mention the prospect of a resurrected draft.
Time will tell.