Scoop: Presidential race still tied. Developing…

· 2004 Election

Here’s a quick replay of the last several months:
Kerry up by 4 — oooh, Bush is really in trouble now. Bush up by 1. Sounds like Kerry’s on the ropes! Kerry up by 2, whatever will Bush do?
And all this drama driven by polls that generally have margins of error around 3 or 4 points.
And then there’s my current favorite— ABC News and the Post have a new poll just out. And among likely voters, it’s 48 to, you guessed it, 48.
Their headline: “Advantage Incumbent.” Now I know they’re getting this by looking at the internals — which side is more enthusiastically behind their candidate, that sort of thing.
But you know what? I don’t care. 48 to 48 isn’t “advantage: incumbent.” It’s a tie. And you know what else, it’s been a tie for months. Swift Boat Vets, Farenheit 911, Dem convention, Olympics, whatever. It’s a tie. And no matter how much big media wants to force a more dramatic horse race out of this, wishing don’t make it so.
I’m pretty sure.
(btw, if you’re interested in a little supporting data, check out Rasmussen’s poll with numbers for the last 31 days. It’s just one poll, but it’s pretty representative. Neither candidate ever gets more than 4 points ahead. This poll has a margin of error of +/-3. In other words, it’s a tie.)