Zogby attempts to steal thunder from Vortex — calls election for Kerry 24 hours later

· long story short

Here’s an odd coincidence — so Saturday, I post “This was the week Bush lost the election” and even at the time I’m thinking, OK, sure, this is how it feels, but really, this post is a touch overboard. I mean, 6 months out? Clinton was losing to Bush senior like 3 months out. Dukakis was beating Bush like 3 months out. What does anything mean 6 months from November, in elections against the Bush family? Not much, right? But what the heck. These are unusual times. So I’m gonna go out on this limb all by myself, face the cold ridicule of the mass media, and call the race for Kerry. OK. Great.
Then just 24 hours later, big-time pollster John Zogby releases a press release calling the election as Kerry’s to lose, 6 months out. Writes Zogby: “here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.”
(Actually, my favorite part of the press release is when Zogby writes “as of today, this race is John Kerry’s to lose” and I’m like, no dude, as of yesterday and he’s like, “seriously. get over yourself dude” and I’m like, “back off, Z-man.”)
I don’t know if that’s, strictly speaking, an unprecedented move by a major pollster, but it’s no small or standard-sized thing. (And my general impression, in particular over the last 3 years, is that Zogby has an unusually solid track record, so this can’t be welcome news over at BushCo.)
I guess that’s just how it is sometimes in the wild and wooly world of internet punditizing. Saturday I was all alone (so…alone…), out on my shaky limb. By Sunday my nut job position had been co-opted by “the man” and I was now full-on mainstream. And yes, the party invitations have started rolling in. And no, I’m not ready to buy my own tux.
Sure, I could be a little bitter toward Zogby, coming in, stealing my thunder. But I have the big picture in mind. When Vortex calls the election in May, BushCo says, ah, Vortex. He’s just talking mish-mash.
But when John Zogby calls the election in May…
…well, let’s just say, a bad Monday for Karl Rove is a good Monday ’round these parts.
So happy Monday!