Luntz says “Kerry will win”

Tom Schaller posts an interesting scoop over at the Gadflyer, recounting a “tipsy” conversation with Republican pollster and message crafter Frank Luntz (thank goodness for blogger ethics):

“What do you think?” I ask him, in a tone that indicates that I’m not talking about last night’s Sox-Yankees brawl.
“Kerry will win,” he says. I feel myself jump back slightly.
“Wow,” I say. “How can you be so sure?”
“Bush’s numbers on the war are bad, and it’s spreading.”
I follow-up: “So, it’s that simple — ‘It’s the war, stupid’?”
“Well, not that simple…but basically, yes.”
“Ok, then, so what’s the save-all scenario for Bush? Is there some way he manages to pull it out?”
“Only by making Kerry look bad, inconsistent.”
“The flip-flopper thing,” I say, seeking clarification.
“Yes,” Luntz said. “But even that may not do it.”