How does he know? They told him so.

From Thursday’s Bush/Allawi press conference:

Q: do you believe, given the situation on the ground and Fallujah and other northern cities in the Sunni triangle, that elections are possible in four months?
BUSH: I do, because the [Iraqi] prime minister [Allawi] told me they are. He’s interested in moving this country forward. And you heard his statement. And I believe him.

…and then a little later, when asked whether “the real voices of the Iraqi people themselves contradict the rosy scenarios you’re painting here today?”:

BUSH: I agree, I’m not the expert on how the Iraqi people think, because I live in America where it’s nice and safe and secure. [ed note: what code is it today? I forget….]
But I’d talk to this man [Allawi]. One reason I’m optimistic about our ability to get the job done is because I talk to the Iraqi prime minister.

And if you boil all that down, basically his answer is “because he told me so.” Ugh, right? I mean, isn’t that how we got into this mess in the first place? You know, some people told the President and his employees something they all wanted to hear, and they took ’em at their word? And again: Ugh.
(btw, in case you’re curious, the other reason he’s optimistic about the situation in Iraq is that “people will choose freedom over tyranny every time, that’s what I believe.” Which happens to be what I like to believe too. Only, unfortunately, “the people” don’t always end up getting to make that choice, y’know? Or else, like, we’d never end up with tyrannies.)