An appreciation, and some electoral arithmetic.

· dKo journal, Edgewise, Paleoblogs

Thanks and congratulations to our own Christian Crumlish and Cecil Vortex, who epitomized for us the heart and soul of the committed Long Haul.
And thank you to Howard Dean, whose controversial decision to spend on party-building in all 50 states, not just limited battleground states, has been well vindicated by the competitive races and victories that popped up unexpectedly all over the country this year.
Also, here’s some interesting nuts-and-bolts electoral arithmetic: Unlike House elections, Senate elections are cumulative; you don’t start back at square-one each time, because the winners from last time still retain their seats.
Moreover, in this last election, the Democrats faced, and overcame, a statistically very quirky and very disproportionate “risk-burden,” which will have shifted to the Republicans next time around, in 2008.
Of the current 45 Democratic seats, a disproportionate 40% (18) were “at risk,” this year. Of the 55 Republican seats, only 28% (15) were “at risk.” For the Democrats to take the Senate, they had to win 24 of the 33 Senate races, nearly three-fourths of the total.
In 2008, the disproportionate “at-risk” burden shifts to the Republicans. Of the 49 Republican seats, 43% (21) will be “at risk.” Of the 51 Democratic seats, only 24% (12) will be.
If the Democrats win just half the races in 2008 (as compared to this year’s three-fourths), their Senate margin will still rise to 55.5-44.5 (half Senators are not all that unusual!).