Will the US Attack Iran?

· dKo journal, Edgewise, Paleoblogs

I think an attack on Iran has to be pre-opposed, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Sufficient in itself is the presence of American “hostage-troops” in Iraq. The vulnerable supply-lines from the south–and their personnel–would be ravaged by Iranians and Iraqi Shiites, including much of the Iraqi Army, cutting off the rest of the US troops, many of whose outposts would anyway be overrun. Ships in the gulf will be sunk–missiles and “kamikaze” boats and planes.
Any attack on Iran “worth doing” would need to be sustained, but this would be convulsed, not “rallied round,” with Mid-East and European allies in revolt, bipartisan domestic politics in revolt, including the Republican nominees.
The attack would also have to be elaborately prepared. I think Bush and Cheney are increasingly on their own. They will be headed off. Politically, again, including all the Wise Men and foreign policy establishment in force. The military would, in effect, refuse–they have ways.* Europe, China, and Russia will have peeled off and made a separate peace.
That’s my guess.
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*Note this rather amazing article:

US generals ‘will quit’ if Bush orders Iran attack

The London Sunday Times, 2/25/07
SOME of America’s most senior military commanders are prepared to resign if the White House orders a military strike against Iran, according to highly placed defence and intelligence sources.