Author: cecil

I don’t think so. I think this is Bush’s Iraq. Or maybe Bushes’ Iraq. And there will come some future mess. And there will be parallels. And the press will say, “Is this President Whathis/hername’s Iraq?” And the papers will ask: Is President Whatshis/hername at risk of losing their presidency, the way GW Bush back…

Looks like there’s some very big badness taking place in Iraq. Quick takes from two perspectives – one from Tacitus on the right over here and from DemFromCT over on Kos over here. As the real world intrudes, perhaps the outcry over Kos’ post re mercs (discussed ad infinitum on Tacitus, Kos, and a million…

Absolutely excellent post here from talkingpointsmemo.com’s Josh Marshall. It discusses a Condi Rice piece in Foreign Affairs, from early 2000, laying out what she saw as the countries five key foreign policy priorities. Marshall writes: Only the last made any mention of terrrorism and it was: “to deal decisively with the threat of rogue regimes…

Interesting article by former Clinton pollster Mark Penn here. His point in short: both Kerry and Bush have it exactly wrong. Their initial wave of ads are designed to reinforce their respective strengths, when they should be focused on shoring up their weaknesses.

IMDB.com reports that Chevy Chase and Jon Voight will be starring in an upcoming film called “The Karate Dog.” But wait: The Karate Kid’s Pat Morita co-stars. But wait: It’s from the director of Baby Geniuses. And the writer of The Million Dollar Kid, which was that rarest of rare flowers: a Corey Feldman /…

Just a quick note as we end this primary season: Whatever happens from here on out, this is a primary that truly tested the nominee and left him and the party far stronger than they were when the process started up. Too many times over the last several years, it’s felt like the Democratic Party…

…was as eloquent an argument as you’re going to see for keeping the 2%ers out of at least the final primary debates. Dennis and Al are smart guys with a lot of interesting points to make, but really, right now, for just a minute or two, I was wishing they’d both shut up so I…

So Bush has come out for an amendment banning gay marriage. Here’s Kerry’s line from today’s news, unusually sharp and on point: “All Americans should be concerned when a president who is in political trouble tries to tamper with the Constitution of the United States at the start of his re-election campaign.” Very nice thump.…

According this mini-bit from MSNBC, Mel Gibson was near-suicidal right up to the point he started making the Passion. Also, he’s pretty sure his wife, a very religious Episcopalian who he says is a saint and a much better human being than him, will unfortunately be spending eternity in hell. No disrespect meant to Mel,…

Right here — a brutal brutal brutal editing job in Bush’s state of the union (one year back, sounds like to me). Well worth your time.

The father was seen as doing nothing to turn around a sluggish economy, and for that, he lost his job. The son learned a hard lesson and now no one can say he’s been idle. Tax cut after tax cut. Spending program after spending program. And we all have the $500 billion dollar receipt to…

There’s a simple scenario where someone-not-named-Kerry still pulls it out: come Feb 3rd, victories are shared around. For example, Kerry wins Mo., Edwards wins SC, Lieberman wins Delaware, Dean wins NM and mebbe AZ, Clark wins OK. North Dakota abstains. That’s it. That’s all it takes. If Dean and Edwards get past Feb 3 without…

Until this last week, I’ve been a classic, pragmatic on-the-fencer. There were weeks when I was inching toward Clark. Days when Edwards had me won over. But I was never a big Dean booster. I had a lot of respect for him, but there was something about his style that I couldn’t see working as…

There’s a lot of heartache out there right now, I’m sure. A lot of Dean folks wondering what this all means for their guy. Some Clark folks feeling like things may be tilting the other way. Lieberman and Gephardt folks grinding their teeth. But then there’s this: In the last 24 years, when have we…

As the day wears on, I find I have another pony in this race. To my surprise, I’m rooting for Edwards to have a strong showing. I’ve been leaning Clark lately. Strategically an Edwards surge is bad for Clark — it splits some of the southern vote (or at least the “he can get support…

So I’ve been thinking through the various scenarios, trying to puzzle out what I’d like to see happen in Iowa. And I’ve concluded that, whatever else goes down, the main thing I’m hoping for is a third or fourth-place finish for Dick Gephardt. It’s not that he’s a bad guy. He’s not. It’s just that…

On Wednesday (somehow I missed this at the time — didn’t seem to really get much press…), Michael Moore wrote an endorsement letter for Wes Clark, now posted on Clark04.com. This is new stuff — not just a rehash of the Draft Clark era letter he wrote a while back. It’s a pretty short, fairly…

As Christian sez below, Edwards is doing pretty well in Iowa. So’s Kerry. Gephardt’s holding fairly strong. Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, Clark continues to close on Dean. Kerry’s picked up a few points. Lieberman’s making some late progress. Really, pollwise, just about every major candidate ‘cept Dean has some reason for renewed hope this past…

About 10 hours before I posted “To Ohio and beyond” (see below), the always excellent talkingpointsmemo.com featured a post making pretty much exactly the same point. And that’s odd, I think. I mean, my observation wasn’t particularly timely. It happens that yesterday’s post popped into my head when it did. But it could have easily…

There’s a new poll out for Ohio, which holds its primary on March 2nd. Like a lot of state-primary polls right now, it puts Dean well out in front (29%) with Clark in a fairly distant second (17%). If you’re like me, you look at that, and you have to think: wow, that’s one heck…

The latest ARG tracking poll for New Hampshire shows Clark gaining 2 points per day over the past 5 days, for a total climb from 12% up to 20% and a very solid second-place showing. Meanwhile in contrast, over the same period Edwards has shot up from 3% to, er, um, 3%.